Abstract We evaluated the prognostic value of different mediators of inflammation: TNF-alpha and its soluble receptor p75, platelet-activating factor, and glutathione tripeptide in a case-control study nested within a cohort of 1281 patients infected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) started on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). During the first year of HAART, 16 cases experienced an AIDS-defining event and 6 experienced an evolution of T CD4(+) cell count <100/mm(3). Forty-four controls who did not progress during the same follow-up period were matched for age, baseline CD4(+), and HIV-RNA. In the control group, plasma levels of TNF-alpha and its soluble receptor p75 decreased significantly from baseline to month 4: from 11.0 to 8.7 pg/ml (p < 0.001) and from 27.3 to 22.8 pg/ml (p < 0.003), respectively. Furthermore the decrease of TNF-alpha soluble receptor p75 was larger in nonprogressors than in progressors (p = 0.003). Measurement of TNF-alpha soluble receptor p75 may be of interest as an additional marker of early antiretroviral effect.